The cotton price chart has returned to what appears to be a
more reasonable level. Does this mean that cotton prices are set to spike
again?
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| Cotton Price Chart retrieved February 24, 2015 |
Dr. John Robinson in the Department of Agricultural Economics
at Texas A&M University has written a nice article 2015/16
Fundamentals, Outlook, and Caveats which is a helpful read.
Another resource that is worth reading is the Long
term projection for textile fibre consumption according to the Cotton Guide
from The International Trade Center. According to their statements, the set of assumptions used to project
world textile fibre and cotton consumption in 2010 and 2020 includes:
Annual
average gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 1970 as a proxy for long-term
GDP growth.
Population
projections from the United Nations.
A long-term
cotton price trend equal to average relative cotton prices between 2003 and
2005; and Increases in the ICAC Textile Fibre Price Index in tandem with
inflation.
As you will
see when you visit their website the Cotton Guide goes on to say, “World textile
fibre consumption is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 4% to
reach 70 million tons in 2010 and by 2.8% per year to reach 87 million tons in
2020. Lower rates of growth in world textile fibre consumption aremainly
associated with lower world GDP growth (down from 5.3% during the 1960s to 3.3%
during the 1990s) and lower growth of the world population (from 2.1% during the
1960s to 1.7% during the 1990s). Between 2000 and 2005, the average rate of
growth of textile fibre consumption was 3.8%. World cotton consumption is
projected to expand at an annual average rate of 2% to reach 26.7 million tons
in 2010 and 32 million tons in 2020. Cotton’s share of the world textile fibre
market is projected to decline to 37% in 2020.” Obviously, this may get
adjusted over time by the Cotton Guide, so you should most definitely visit
their site to get the most current information in case they have made
adjustments. We retrieved above on February 24, 2015.
If you know
other resources to help the fashion industry gauge the changes to cotton prices,
please share your resources in the comments area below.
Learn more
about cotton prices and relevant issues in our
textile fiber section.
Thank you for taking the time to read our textile fiber blog post. We hope that you have found this news to be informative. If you have comments or questions, please add your thoughts in the discussion area below.